Budget at a Glance
Expenditure breakdown
Recurrent
Development
County Transfers
Revenue sources
Income Tax
VAT
Excise
Import
Other
Budget & revenue trend — all years since 2013 (KSh Trillion)
Sector allocations
Government Funds & Levies
Active as of selected year
Ministries, Departments & Agencies
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📊 National Procurement Statistics by Financial Year
Total tenders advertised and contracts awarded across all national government MDAs, county governments, state corporations, and public universities — published on the Public Procurement Information Portal (PPIP) at tenders.go.ke. Data sourced from PPRA Annual Reports 2019–2024 and the Open Contracting Partnership OCDS dataset.
Financial Year
FY 2019/20
~14,800
Tenders Advertised
~8,200
Contracts Awarded
KSh ~108Bn
Published Contract Value
KSh 22.81Bn
AGPO Awards
🎯 AGPO: KSh 22.81Bn to youth, women & PWD
Reduced procurement activity due to onset of COVID-19 pandemic.
Financial Year
FY 2020/21
~16,300
Tenders Advertised
~10,400
Contracts Awarded
KSh ~128Bn
Published Contract Value
KSh 26.47Bn
AGPO Awards
🎯 AGPO: KSh 26.47Bn — 25,278 contracts to AGPO groups
Post-COVID recovery. Women: KSh 13.81Bn, Youth: KSh 10.65Bn, PWD: KSh 2.01Bn.
Financial Year
FY 2021/22
~24,500
Tenders Advertised
~18,600
Contracts Awarded
KSh ~163Bn
Published Contract Value
KSh ~28Bn
AGPO Awards (est.)
🎯 AGPO: KSh ~28Bn estimated (PPRA AR 2021/22)
Significant ramp-up as e-procurement adoption increased on PPIP. Uhuru govt final full FY.
Financial Year
FY 2022/23
~38,200
Tenders Advertised
~26,400
Contracts Awarded
KSh ~218Bn
Published Contract Value
KSh ~32Bn
AGPO Awards (est.)
🎯 AGPO: KSh ~32Bn estimated across 3 groups
Ruto administration first full FY. Infrastructure & energy tenders surged. PPIP mandated for all entities.
Financial Year
FY 2023/24
~48,000
Tenders Advertised
34,000+
Contracts Awarded
KSh 262.8Bn
Published Contract Value
KSh ~35Bn
AGPO Awards (est.)
🎯 AGPO: KSh ~35Bn estimated target for year
Source: PPRA MAPS Assessment 2024 — "34,000 contracts worth KSh 262.8Bn reported in FY 2023/24."
Financial Year · Ongoing
FY 2024/25
~52,000
Tenders Advertised (est.)
~36,000
Contracts Awarded (est.)
KSh ~280Bn
Contract Value (est.)
KSh ~38Bn
AGPO Awards (target)
🎯 AGPO target: 30% of all procurement reserved
Year in progress (Jul 2024–Jun 2025). Estimates based on PPIP trends. Final PPRA AR expected late 2025.
ⓘ Sources: PPRA Annual Reports 2019–2024 · PPRA MAPS Assessment Report 2024 · Open Contracting Partnership OCDS Dataset (tenders.go.ke/ocds) · Nation Africa investigation on top contract winners · Kenya News Agency AGPO statistics. Figures marked ~est. are derived from PPIP dataset file sizes and trend extrapolation. Published values may undercount due to incomplete e-procurement compliance (~73% of entities reported in 2024). Full PPRA reports →
Expenditure Detail
Sector allocations (KSh Bn)
Recurrent vs development
Recurrent
Development
Classification
| Category | KSh Bn | Share | Type |
|---|
Development Projects — 2013 to Present
Major infrastructure and social projects since the March 2013 elections. Use the year slider to filter by era. Click any project to expand details.
🔍
🗺 Project Map
Completed
Ongoing
Stalled/Revised
Planned
Slider filters year
Statutory Deductions Calculator
KSh 100,000
KSh 12KKSh 800K
Estimated Net Pay
KSh 0
Deduction visual
PAYE — Income Tax
▼Progressive tax: 10% on first KSh 24K · 25% next KSh 8,333 · 30% up to KSh 500K · 32.5% to KSh 800K · 35% above. Personal relief KSh 2,400/month.
NSSF — Pension
▼Before FY 2021/22: flat KSh 200/month. From FY 2023/24 (NSSF Act 2013): Tier I 6% of first KSh 8K + Tier II 6% of KSh 8K–72K. Max KSh 4,320/month employee contribution.
NHIF → SHIF (Health)
▼NHIF: banded fixed contributions (KSh 150–1,700/month) until October 2024. SHIF under SHA: 2.75% of gross salary, minimum KSh 300/month from Oct 2024.
AHL — Housing Levy
▼Introduced July 2023. Challenged legally; fully operational March 2024 after Supreme Court upheld it. 1.5% employee + 1.5% employer of gross salary. Funds National Housing Development Fund.
Debt & Fiscal Position
Public debt — all years (KSh Trillion)
Total
Domestic
External
FY 2025/26 deficit financing
Domestic KSh 635Bn
External KSh 288Bn
Revenue vs expenditure gap — all years (KSh Trillion)
Revenue
Expenditure
🏦 Lenders & Debt Composition by Financial Year
Outstanding balances (KSh Bn) by creditor · Click a lender card to highlight · Click a FY row for event detail
| Financial Year | External (KSh Bn) | Domestic (KSh Bn) | Total (KSh Tr) | Debt/GDP | Key Debt Event |
|---|
ⓘ Sources: PDMO Quarterly Debt Bulletins · CBK Statistics · IMF/World Bank DSA · AfDB Economic Outlook · Cytonn Investment Research. External balances converted at year-average CBK rates. *FY25/26 projections.
County Financial Tracking — 2013 to Present
Equitable share allocations, own-source revenue and absorption rates for all 47 counties since devolution. Use the year slider to track changes.
Equitable Share — FY 2025/26 (KSh Bn)
Equitable Share (KSh Bn)
LowMidHigh
Click a county on the map
or select from the table below
Top 10 counties by equitable share —
National county transfers trend (KSh Bn)
Devolution began 2013. Transfers grew from KSh 210Bn (FY13/14) to KSh 405Bn (FY25/26) — a 93% increase over 13 years.
All 47 Counties —
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| # | County | Region | Eq. Share (Bn) | Own Revenue (Bn) | Total Budget (Bn) | Absorption % | Population (M) |
|---|
🔍 Graft & Corruption Tracker — 2013 to Present
Major corruption scandals, public funds lost, and accountability outcomes since the 2013 elections. Sources: EACC, DPP, Auditor General, Transparency International, and investigative media.
Transparency International — CPI Score (2025)
30 / 100
Ranked 130th of 182 countries · Sub-Saharan avg: 32
EACC — Corruption Reports Received (FY 2023/24)
4,183
1,846 referred for investigation · 33 convictions secured · KSh 3.4Bn assets recovered
KSh 300Bn+
Estimated Lost Since 2013
40+
Major Scandals Uncovered
~8%
National Budget Lost to Graft Annually
293
EACC Convictions Since 2003
126th
TI CPI Ranking 2023 (of 180)
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⚠️ Note on Data: Amounts stated are as per court charges, audit reports, or investigative journalism — they may differ from final court-determined losses. Case statuses reflect publicly available information as of 2025 and may have changed. Sources include the Auditor General, EACC, DPP press releases, and verified media.
Sources: EACC · Office of DPP · Auditor General · Transparency International · The Elephant · Daily Nation · AfriCOG
Sources: EACC · Office of DPP · Auditor General · Transparency International · The Elephant · Daily Nation · AfriCOG
🏗️ NG-CDF Spending — 290 Constituencies (2013–2026)
National Government Constituencies Development Fund — 2.5% of national revenue disbursed annually to all 290 constituencies for education, security, environment and community projects. Sources: NG-CDF Board, National Treasury, Parliament DFAC reports.
KSh 491Bn
Total Disbursed — FY 2013/14 to 2025/26
290
Constituencies Covered
2.5%
Minimum % of National Revenue (by law)
—
FY Total Allocation
~KSh 15Bn
Annual Bursary Spend (1.2M students)
3,087
Schools Initiated Since 2003
Fund Allocation by Sector (typical year)
~55%
📚 Education — classrooms, labs, bursaries, TTIs
~25%
🏥 Health — dispensaries, KMTC campuses (61 built)
~10%
🚔 Security — police posts, lighting (6% security)
~5%
🌳 Environment — tree cover, climate mitigation (2023 Act)
~5%
🏗️ Community — markets, water, roads, sports
~KSh 3.35Bn
🌍 Environment total (FY 2016/17–2025/26)
NG-CDF Annual Allocation — KSh Billion (2013/14 to 2025/26)
KSh 22Bn in 2013/14 → KSh 55.9Bn in 2025/26 — a 154% increase over 13 years. Growth tracks national revenue growth at the mandated 2.5% floor. Total cumulative: KSh 491Bn across all 290 constituencies.
NG-CDF as % of National Budget
Year Detail —
⚖️ Constitutional Status Note
In 2024, a three-judge High Court bench declared the NG-CDF Act unconstitutional, citing separation of powers — MPs should not oversee executive funds. The Court of Appeal is yet to rule. The Fund continues operating pending the appeal outcome. This remains one of Kenya's most significant public finance governance disputes.
NG-CDF Board · Kenya Law — NG-CDF Act
In 2024, a three-judge High Court bench declared the NG-CDF Act unconstitutional, citing separation of powers — MPs should not oversee executive funds. The Court of Appeal is yet to rule. The Fund continues operating pending the appeal outcome. This remains one of Kenya's most significant public finance governance disputes.
NG-CDF Board · Kenya Law — NG-CDF Act
📋 Government Tenders & Contracts — 2013 to 2025
Major public procurement contracts — advertisement, award, contractor, value, and implementation timeline. Data sourced from PPRA/PPIP, Kenya Treasury, Parliament reports, and verified investigative media. Search live tenders → tenders.go.ke
35
Major Contracts Tracked
KSh 3.2T+
Combined Contract Value
14
Completed
12
Ongoing
9
Stalled / Cancelled
29%
Contracts with Controversy
🏦 Kenya PPP Pipeline — Status as of 2026
| Project | Contracting Authority | Value (KSh Bn) | Contract Term | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi Expressway (27.1km) | KeNHA / Moja Expressway | 86.8 | 30 years (BOOT) | ✅ Operational since May 2022 |
| Naivasha–Kisumu SGR (Phase 2B) | Kenya Railways | 549.0 | Concession TBD | 🔵 Construction commenced 2024 |
| Mombasa–Nairobi Usahihi Expressway | KeNHA / Everstrong Capital | 465.0 | PPP TBD | ⏳ Development agreement 2026 |
| BRT Lines 2 & 3 (Nairobi) | NaMA / NAMATA | ~85.0 | 25 years | ⏳ Procurement stage |
| Mombasa Port Container Terminal | Kenya Ports Authority | TBD | 30+ years | 🔴 On hold (court challenge) |
| Nairobi Railway City Central Station | Kenya Railways | TBD | PPP TBD | ⏳ Cabinet-approved concept 2025 |
📋 Data Sources & Caveats
Contract values are as advertised or reported; actual outturn costs may differ due to variations. Dates are from official gazette notices, Parliament committee reports, and verified investigative journalism. PPIP (tenders.go.ke) · PPRA Contract Awards · PPP Kenya · Open Contracting OCDS Data · Parliament Committee Reports · Nation Africa · The Elephant
Contract values are as advertised or reported; actual outturn costs may differ due to variations. Dates are from official gazette notices, Parliament committee reports, and verified investigative journalism. PPIP (tenders.go.ke) · PPRA Contract Awards · PPP Kenya · Open Contracting OCDS Data · Parliament Committee Reports · Nation Africa · The Elephant
💱 Forex & Fuel Prices — 2013 to Jun 2026
Kenya Shilling exchange rates vs major world currencies (CBK monthly averages) and EPRA-regulated pump prices.
Sources: Central Bank of Kenya ·
EPRA Pump Prices
129.4
KES/USD (2025 avg)
159.7
All-time Peak (Jan 2024)
+72%
KES Depreciation vs USD 2013→2025
-19%
KES Recovery Jan 2024→2025
ⓘ Annual averages of CBK daily indicative mid-rates. Peak: 159.7 KES/USD (Jan 2024). Current (May 2026): ~129.4. Source: CBK Forex Exchange Rates
KSh 214.03
Petrol Nairobi — Jun 2026
KSh 222.86
Diesel Nairobi — Jun 2026 (▼ from KSh 242.92 record)
KSh 191.38
Kerosene Nairobi — Jun 2026 (▲ +KSh38.60)
+100%
Petrol rise 2013→May 2026
ⓘ EPRA maximum retail prices (KSh/litre incl. VAT). Regulated since 2010 (ERC); monthly cycle from 2022. Record: Diesel KSh 242.92 (15 May 2026). Jun 2026: diesel cut -KSh10 to KSh 222.86; kerosene raised +KSh38.60 to KSh 191.38 (anti-adulteration). VAT 8% valid to 14 Jul 2026. Source: EPRA Pump Prices
📋 FY 2026/27 Finance Bill — Comparative Analysis
Comparative analysis of Kenya's proposed FY 2026/27 Budget Estimates (tabled Parliament, May 2026) vs FY 2025/26 approved estimates.
Source: Parliament of Kenya Budget Documents ·
2026 BPS (Treasury)
📅 Budget Estimates Tabled May 2026
✅ Budget Estimates 2026/27 Approved by Parliament
✅ Budget Policy Statement Approved Feb 2026
KSh 4.82T
Total Gross Budget 2026/27
▲ 12.4% vs 4.29T (2025/26)
KSh 3.63T
Total Revenue (incl. AiA)
▲ 6.8% vs 3.40T (2025/26)
KSh 1.19T
Fiscal Deficit
▲ 28.8% vs 0.92T (2025/26)
5.7% GDP
Deficit as % of GDP
▲ wider than 4.8% (2025/26)
KSh 0.996T
Domestic Borrowing (net, 4.8% GDP)ing Target
▲ +56.5% vs KSh 0.636T (25/26)
5.2%
GDP Growth Projection
▲ from 5.0% in 2025
Total Budget Comparison — FY 2023/24 to FY 2026/27
FY 2026/27 Expenditure Mix
| Item | FY 2024/25 (Approved) | FY 2025/26 (Approved) | FY 2026/27 (Proposed) | Change (25/26→26/27) | % of GDP 26/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (incl. AiA) | KSh 2.90T | KSh 3.35T (rev.) | KSh 3.63T | ▲ +6.8% | 17.4% GDP |
| Ordinary Revenue (Tax) | KSh 2.60T | KSh 2.80T | KSh 3.00T | ▲ +7.1% | 14.4% GDP |
| Total Expenditure | KSh 3.99T | KSh 4.53T (rev.) | KSh 4.82T | ▲ +12.4% | 23.1% GDP |
| Recurrent Expenditure | KSh 2.84T | KSh 3.13T | KSh 3.54T | ▲ +13.1% | 17.0% GDP |
| Development Expenditure | KSh 0.70T | KSh 0.68T | KSh 0.75T | ▲ +10.3% | 3.6% GDP |
| County Transfers | KSh 0.40T | KSh 0.47T | KSh 0.50T | ▲ +6.4% | 2.4% GDP |
| Consolidated Fund Services (CFS) | KSh 1.10T | KSh 1.24T | KSh 1.50T | ▲ +21.0% | 7.2% GDP |
| Interest Payments (domestic) | KSh 0.72T | KSh 0.82T | KSh 1.25T | ▲ +52.4% | 6.0% GDP |
| Fiscal Deficit | KSh 1.09T | KSh 1.18T (rev.) | KSh 1.19T | ▲ +28.8% | 5.7% GDP |
| Domestic Borrowing | KSh 0.62T | KSh 0.64T | KSh 0.996T | ▲ RECORD | 5.3% GDP |
| External Borrowing | KSh 0.47T | KSh 0.28T | KSh 0.116T | ▼ -59.6% | 0.4% GDP |
Sector Allocations — FY 2025/26 vs FY 2026/27 (KSh Billion)
2026/27 Sector Share
| Sector | FY 2024/25 | FY 2025/26 | FY 2026/27 | Change | Share 26/27 | Key Programmes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education | KSh 623.4Bn | KSh 658.5Bn | KSh 668.3Bn | ▲ +1.5% | 28.5% | Capitation, teacher salaries, JSS, TVET, universities. TSC +KSh 11Bn to KSh 420.9Bn. |
| National Security | KSh 340.2Bn | KSh 373.8Bn | KSh 566.9Bn | ▲ +51.7% | 24.2% | NIS KSh 58.6Bn. Police KSh 125Bn. Pre-election security surge. NISCCS KSh 2Bn. |
| Energy, Infrastructure & ICT | KSh 480.5Bn | KSh 500.7Bn | KSh 500.0Bn | ▼ -0.1% | 21.3% | Roads KSh 230.3Bn. Housing KSh 135.8Bn. SGR Phase 2B/2C KSh 20.8Bn. Geothermal expansion. |
| Health | KSh 136.2Bn | KSh 136.8Bn | KSh 170.7Bn | ▲ +24.8% | 7.3% | SHA/SHIF rollout. UHC KSh 4Bn. Referrals KSh 54Bn. Vaccines KSh 4.6Bn. KEMSA KSh 5Bn. |
| Governance, Justice & Law | KSh 265.1Bn | KSh 276.7Bn | KSh 290.0Bn | ▲ +4.8% | 5.2% | Judiciary KSh 25Bn. GJLO sector. Parliament KSh 22Bn. EACC KSh 2Bn. |
| Agriculture & Rural Dev | KSh 74.5Bn | KSh 78.0Bn | KSh 63.0Bn | ▼ -19.2% | 2.7% | Fertilizer subsidy KSh 10Bn. NAVCAP KSh 10Bn. Fisheries KSh 4.8Bn. Sugar reforms KSh 2Bn. |
| Environment & Water | KSh 112.3Bn | KSh 117.5Bn | KSh 117.5Bn | — | 5.0% | Water supply schemes. KEWASIP KSh 0.5Bn. Climate action FLLoCA KSh 11.5Bn. |
| Social Protection & Youth | KSh 98.4Bn | KSh 109.7Bn | KSh 109.7Bn | — | 4.7% | Inua Jamii cash transfers. Hustler Fund. Women/Youth enterprise. NYS. NYOTA. |
Revenue Trend — FY 2022/23 to FY 2026/27 (KSh Bn)
FY 2026/27 Revenue Sources Mix
| Revenue Head | FY 2024/25 | FY 2025/26 | FY 2026/27 | Change | % of Total Rev 26/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax (PAYE + Corporate) | KSh 1,156Bn | KSh 1,283Bn | KSh 1,380Bn | ▲ +7.6% | 38.0% |
| VAT (Domestic + Import) | KSh 744Bn | KSh 813Bn | KSh 877Bn | ▲ +7.9% | 24.2% |
| Import Duty | KSh 187Bn | KSh 195Bn | KSh 214Bn | ▲ +9.7% | 5.9% |
| Excise Duty | KSh 302Bn | KSh 323Bn | KSh 349Bn | ▲ +8.0% | 9.6% |
| Other Tax Revenue | KSh 211Bn | KSh 186Bn | KSh 180Bn | ▼ -3.2% | 5.0% |
| Appropriation-in-Aid (AiA) | KSh 300Bn | KSh 600Bn | KSh 630Bn | ▲ +5.0% | 17.3% |
| Grants & External Support | KSh 0Bn | KSh 0Bn | KSh 0Bn | — | — |
| TOTAL REVENUE | KSh 2,900Bn | KSh 3,400Bn | KSh 3,630Bn | ▲ +6.8% | 100% |
⚠️ Revenue Risk: FY 2025/26 revenue was KSh 115.3Bn below target by December 2025 (KSh 1,236.5Bn collected vs KSh 1,351.8Bn target). The FY 2026/27 target assumes 6.8% growth on revised estimates, implying KRA collection efficiency must materially improve. The Finance Bill 2026 is expected to introduce new revenue measures including digital services taxes, minimum global tax (Pillar Two), and rationalisation of VAT exemptions.
Deficit Financing — FY 2026/27 vs Prior Years (KSh Bn)
FY 2026/27 Borrowing Mix
| Debt Item | FY 2024/25 | FY 2025/26 | FY 2026/27 | Change | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Deficit (KSh Bn) | KSh 1,090 | KSh 923 | KSh 1,190 | ▲ +28.8% | Wider than 2025/26 despite consolidation narrative. |
| Deficit / GDP | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | ▲ +0.9pp | Exceeds IMF 4.9% 2026 projection. Pre-election cycle spending. |
| Domestic Borrowing (net) | KSh 622 | KSh 636 | KSh 995.7 | ▲ +56.5% | Net domestic financing KSh 995.7Bn (4.8% GDP). Still near-record high domestication of borrowing. |
| External Borrowing (net) | KSh 468 | KSh 287 | KSh 116.2 | ▼ -59.6% | Net external financing KSh 116.2Bn (0.6% GDP). No new Eurobond cycle planned. IMF programme lapsed Apr 2025. |
| Total Interest Payments | KSh 929 | KSh 1,090 | KSh 1,254.2 | ▲ +15.0% | Total interest (CFS) KSh 1,254.2Bn = 26% of gross budget. (Source: IPF analysis, Budget Summary Apr 2026) |
| Gross Public Debt (est.) | KSh 10.4T | KSh 11.5T | KSh ~13.6T | ▲ ~18% | PV of debt/GDP: 65.7% (Budget Summary). Nominal debt/GDP ~73%. PFM statutory ceiling 55% — waiver needed. |
| Debt / GDP | 62% | 60% | 65.7% (PV) | ▲ +5.7pp (PV) | PV of total public debt/GDP = 65.7% (Budget Summary Apr 2026). Well above PFM Act 55% ceiling. Waiver required. |
🔴 Critical Alert: Domestic interest payments of KSh 986.7Bn in FY 2026/27 exceed the entire Education sector budget of KSh 668.3Bn. CFS (interest + pensions) consume 31.2% of the total gross budget. The medium-term debt strategy targets domestic borrowing at 78% of total — a deliberate shift to reduce FX risk following the 2023/24 KES crisis, but significantly increasing pressure on domestic credit markets and T-bill/bond yields.
County Transfers — FY 2022/23 to FY 2026/27 (KSh Bn)
FY 2026/27 County Allocation Breakdown
| Item | FY 2024/25 | FY 2025/26 | FY 2026/27 | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equitable Share | KSh 385.4Bn | KSh 400.1Bn | KSh 428.0Bn | ▲ +6.9% | Senate–Assembly agreed KSh 428Bn (21.9% of shareable revenue). Up from original KSh 420Bn BPS proposal. |
| Equalisation Fund | KSh 10.2Bn | KSh 10.2Bn | KSh 15.2Bn | ▲ +49.0% | For marginalised areas — Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Tana River, Lamu, Taita-Taveta. |
| Conditional Grants (County Govts Add. Alloc. Bill) | KSh 65.3Bn | KSh 74.9Bn | KSh 75.7Bn | ▲ +1.1% | Includes World Bank, AfDB, and bilateral project grants channelled through counties. |
| TOTAL COUNTY TRANSFERS | KSh 461.0Bn | KSh 485.2Bn | KSh 495.5Bn | ▲ +2.1% | Approved Budget Estimates: KSh 495.5Bn total (equitable share KSh 428Bn + equalisation + conditional grants). |
🔴 HIGH
Revenue Shortfall
FY 2025/26 already KSh 115.3Bn below target at mid-year. FY 2026/27 target requires 6.8% growth. History of missing KRA targets. Finance Bill 2026 revenue measures yet to be enacted — risk of implementation delays (recalling 2024 Finance Bill withdrawal after Gen-Z protests).
🔴 HIGH
Record Domestic Borrowing (KSh 1.1T)
Domestic net financing KSh 995.7Bn — effectively breaching the KSh 1 trillion threshold. Risks crowding out private sector credit, pushing up T-bill/bond yields, and increasing future interest burden. IMF programme lapsed April 2025 — no backstop if markets tighten.
🔴 HIGH
Debt / GDP Ceiling Breach
Gross public debt projected at KSh 14.1T (67.6% GDP), well above the PFM Act 55% ceiling. Government will need a statutory waiver or legislative amendment. Interest payments (KSh 1.46T) now equal 31.2% of gross budget — fiscal dominance risk.
🟡 MEDIUM
Pre-Election Spending Pressures (2027)
Security allocation up 51.7% (+KSh 193Bn). State House down from KSh 16.3Bn to KSh 12.6Bn (optics). NIS at KSh 58.6Bn. Historical pattern: FY before elections shows fiscal slippage — supplementary estimates typically add 8–12% in the first half.
🟡 MEDIUM
Agriculture Budget Cut (−19.2%)
Agriculture cut from KSh 78Bn to KSh 63Bn despite food security mandate. Fertilizer subsidy retained at KSh 10Bn but faces procurement delays. ASAL food insecurity could worsen given Middle East oil shock already compressing food import affordability.
🟡 MEDIUM
Middle East Oil & FX Risk
Diesel at KSh 242.92/L (May 2026). Every 10% rise in global oil adds ~KSh 80Bn to petroleum import bill. KSh at 129 — any reversal above 140 significantly raises external debt service costs. Budget uses 129 KES/USD assumption.
🟢 POSITIVE
GDP Growth Momentum
5.3% GDP growth projected (2026), up from 5.0% in 2025. Moody's and S&P upgraded sovereign credit outlook. Inflation at 4.5% (Dec 2025). CBK rate cuts supportive. Favourable rains boosted agriculture Q1 2026. Tourism receipts recovering.
🟢 POSITIVE
External Debt De-risking
External net borrowing falls to KSh 90Bn (from KSh 287Bn). No new Eurobond planned. G-to-G oil deal reducing FX demand. National Infrastructure Fund seeded by privatisation proceeds (KPC IPO, Safaricom stake) — alternative to sovereign debt for capex.
ⓘ Sources: Parliament Budget Documents · 2026 Budget Policy Statement · Citizen Digital (Apr 30 2026) · Capital FM Budget Brief (May 10 2026) · Tuko.co.ke · Parliament.go.ke Node 25122 · Cytonn FY 2025/26 Review. FY 2026/27 figures are proposed estimates — subject to Finance Bill 2026 and Appropriation Act. Development expenditure target of 29.0% of ministerial spending is below the PFM Act 30% statutory minimum (acknowledged by Treasury).